August 18, 2023

8 min read

Bitcoin's Wild Night

Unpacking the impact of SpaceX revelations, Evergrande's woes, and speculations on Ether-ETF

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Last night, the tranquility of recent weeks was shattered by a sudden price swing. Within mere minutes, Bitcoin's value plummeted from $27,500 to $25,200. However, a quick recovery followed, settling around $26,500, marking a 4% decline from its initial value.


Let's break down the evening's events. Highlighted by specific tweets and graph markings, both Bitcoin and Ether's price movements have been tracked.


Bitcoin’s Movement Since Thursday 18:00 hrs

At 22:42, a tweet from @WhaleChart claimed that SpaceX had sold $373 million worth of Bitcoin. This revelation, later sourced to a Wall Street Journal article, scrutinized Elon Musk's space company's financial reports.


The exact quote from the article reads: “The documents also show SpaceX wrote down the value of bitcoin it owns by a total of $373 million last year and in 2021 and has sold the cryptocurrency. Tesla has taken a similar approach with its bitcoin holdings.”


Importantly, 'to write down' means adjusting the book value of an asset, not necessarily selling it. The reference to Tesla suggests a similar strategy, as they sold only 10% of their Bitcoin holdings, retaining the rest - Elon Musk famously referred to it as holding with 'diamond hands'.


At 22:45, Bloomberg reported that Chinese real estate giant, Evergrande, has applied for bankruptcy protection in the U.S. The company, already in financial turmoil for two years, disclosed losses of €73 billion for 2021 and 2022.


The unease around China's real estate sector has previously impacted Bitcoin's volatility. Significant crises in China have the potential to shake the global economy, and these concerns spilled into the crypto space.


At 23:41, the drama heightened. The value dipped from $27,500 to $25,200 in four minutes, only to bounce back to $26,500 shortly after. Forced sell-offs seemed to fuel this drop. Data from Coinglass reveals that $1.05 billion worth of crypto assets were liquidated, with Bitcoin and Ether comprising $800 million.


The futures contracts open saw a dramatic decrease. Coinalyze data shows a 23% dip from $10.7 billion to $8.2 billion.


At 0:55, Bloomberg relayed news from SEC sources indicating their inclination to approve an Ether-ETF based on ether futures. Although this wasn't groundbreaking news, Ether experienced a surge, ending the rollercoaster with a mere 2% loss, compared to Bitcoin's 4%.


Zooming out, while many look for fundamental causes, market dynamics might be the more straightforward explanation. Various markers and trendlines have for a century provided insights into collective market intuitions.


Bitcoin’s Trend Since April 2022

Is this the end of the 2023 bullish trend for Bitcoin? It's still too early to tell. Evaluating the trend requires a longer lens, looking at weeks or even months. 


Factors to monitor include:

- Potential lows lower than the 15th June bottom of $24,750.

- Weekly closes below the horizontal level of $25,300 or the 200-day average of $27,200.

- Positive price reactions, possibly following a retest of the $25,000 mark with bullish divergences on the 4-hour chart.

- Achievement of a price above $31,500 for a higher high.


From last week's projections, the bullish scenario seems unlikely. Still, neutral and bearish paths remain plausible, with a final verdict pending.


Reviewing Bitcoin's cycles, we ponder if this marks the end of a 63-day daily cycle or the onset of a cycle leading even lower. Time and further analysis will bring clarity.


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